Analysts adjust price targets to $440, citing potential share dilution despite aggressive BTC accumulation strategies.
Investment bank TD Cowen analysts have revised their pricing prediction for Strategy, estimating it would be $440, down from their previous estimate of $500. They changed the plan because they believe the company’s methods of acquiring more Bitcoin could ultimately result in each share of the company being worth a little less.
Strategy is acquiring Bitcoin quicker than the majority of analysts expected. It is now projected to acquire around 155,000 Bitcoins in fiscal 2026, up from 90,000. It intends to fund that accelerated acquisition by issuing more common shares and preferred stock.
The Dilution Factor
When a company sells more shares, each existing share represents a smaller piece of the company—a process called dilution—which can reduce the amount of Bitcoin attributed to each share and, in turn, its value.| Metric / Period | 2025 (Actual) | 2026 (Projected) | 2027 (Long-term) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Yield | 22.8% | 7.1% | Improving |
| BTC Target Price | - | ~$177,000 | ~$226,000 |
Even though Bitcoin prices have been lower recently, Strategy has not slowed down. In the week ending January 11, 2026, the firm sold approximately 6.8 million shares of its regular stock and 1.2 million shares of its special preferred stock (STRC), raising around $1.25 billion to buy an extra 13,627 Bitcoins.
Analysts also highlighted that MSCI recently decided not to remove Bitcoin treasury companies from its indexes, providing a near-term boost. However, they cautioned that major investors like BlackRock may eventually view companies like Strategy as competitors, potentially influencing future index inclusion.
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Keywords: Bitcoin|Strategy